Assignment 16: Brennan Cegelka

Brennan Cegelka AP Language and Composition 4th Hour Speech Manuscript
Since the creation of nuclear weapons, nuclear war has become one of the greatest threat to human existence. A nuclear armed North Korea increases the likelihood of nuclear catastrophe and threatens America’s national security. A nuclear tipped intercontinental ballistic missile launched from North Korea could reach Los Angeles in just half an hour. This paper 1 discusses how the world arrived at this point, the severity of the threat posed by North Korea, and the options available to the United States. North Korea: A Brief History In the early 1900s, Japan effectively made Korea a territory of its expanding empire.2 Japan ruled over Korea for decades, industrializing and modernizing Korea’s economy, but these advancements served Japan, not Korea. When Japan surrendered in World War II, both Russia and the United States sought control of Korea. In September of 1945 two occupation zones were created for the region. With the south controlled by the United States, and the North controlled by Russia. This peace did not last long. North Korea invaded the south in 1950, launching the Korean war. The war was suspended, but never technically ended, with the creation of the 38th 4 parallel, a Demilitarized Zone. No official peace treaty was never signed. 5 North and South Korea developed quite differently. The North installed a dictator, Kim Il Sung, adopted a communist philosophy, limited civil liberties, controlled the media, and adopted a policy of isolation and self reliance, called Juche. Effectively, North Korea cut itself off 6 economically and politically from the rest of the world. South Korea, on the other hand, 7 adopted an American style democracy with three branches of government, embraced capitalism, has a free press and supports civil liberties similar to those in the US.8 The effects of these different governments is astounding. South Korea’s economy thrives. Per capita income in South Korea is roughly $33,000. In North Korea its less than $2,000. The incarceration rates are through the roof in the north relative to the south. North Korea is malnourished. A famine killed up to 3 million North Koreans, who are now one and a 10 half to three inches shorter than South Koreans. 11 While South Korea lives on the forefront of technology thanks to companies like Samsung. North Korea does not even have the internet. It lives up to its name, “The Hermit Kingdom,” which leads them to believe some pretty outrageous things. For example, according to the state media, Kim Jong Un learned to drive at age 3 and won an international sailing contest at 9. The first time his father ever played golf, he shot 11 holes in one. It would be funny if he wasn't so dangerous. The threat posed by a nuclear North Korea is very serious for two reasons. First, Kim Jong Un is a ruthless dictator. Second, his primary goal is obtaining a nuclear missile that can reach the United States. That’s a dangerous combination. Since taking power in 2011, Kim Jong Un has executed over 140 political and military officials. In 2013, he ordered the execution of his own uncle, who was second in 13 command. And in February, he ordered the assassination of his oldest brother, Kim Jong-Nam. The brother would likely have become North Korea’s leader if Kim Jong Un died or was 15 removed from power. Newsweek recently reported that North Korea’s current number two is missing and is believed to be dead at the hands of Kim Jong Un.16 Now he wants a nuclear missile that can reach the United States and experts think he will have in Trump’s first term. Since February, North Korea has conducted 16 tests, launching 23 missiles in total. Kim believes the US will eventually try to remove him from power. Kim 17 views a nuclear missile as the ultimate deterrent. Would Trump try to remove Kim if North Korea could launch a nuclear missile that hits the US? No. In short, Kim views an intercontinental ballistic missile as an insurance policy that guarantees his rule over North Korea. In other words, North Korea’s nuclear program is, for Kim, an insurance policy that guarantees he remains in power.The United States has four options: And none of them are good. Twenty five million people live in Seoul, South Korea’s capital, which is just forty miles from the DMZ. North Korea has an estimated 8,000 big guns just north of the DMZ. It also has stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons. These conventional weapons alone can reach and decimate Seoul within minutes. This makes military options dangerous because North Korea could almost immediately wipe out Seoul with these existing weapons. The United States has four options: 1. Prevention: Pre-emptive Invasion. This is a full fledged invasion and occupation of North Korea. It would be expensive, dangerous, and time consuming. Americans would occupy North Korea and try to install a democracy and a capitalistic economy. It could take decades. 2. Turning the screws: This approach consists of aerial strikes on nuclear facilities and special forces operations at strategic locations to disable North Korea’s nuclear and pre-emptive capabilities. If successful, this approach would essentially neuter North Korea’s military. On the other hand, it would be seen as an act of war. The risks include missing essential military capabilities, including a nuclear missile location, which could be used to attack Seoul or Japan. 3. Decapitation: Assassinate Kim. This approach is appealing because of its apparent simplicity and relative ease. The downside is that we do not know how North Korea would react. They could be relieved to be rid of a ruthless dictator or they could see it as an act of war and respond in kind. 4. Acceptance: Accept that North Korea will soon obtain a nuclear missile. Like the Cold War with Russia, the US and North Korea would rely on M.A.D., Mutually Assured Destruction, to balance and minimize the risks of war I believe we should pursue all options, particularly Decapitation based on intelligence from North Korea, which is limited. But, unfortunately, we may be stuck with acceptance because all the other options are worse. I think a diplomatic resolution, perhaps involving recognizing North Korea and engaging in trade and growth could be the best long term solution for the Korean Peninsula and the world.
1 Bowden, Mark. “How to Deal With North Korea.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 9 Aug. 2017, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/.
2 www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/History_of_Korea#Japanese_occupation
3 20th CENTURY: Korea as a Colony of Japan, 1910-1945 | Central Themes and Key Points | Asia for Educators | Columbia University, afe.easia.columbia.edu/main_pop/kpct/ kp_koreaimperialism.htm.
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.
6 The Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica. “Kim Il-Sung.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 15 Oct. 2017, www.britannica.com/biography/Kim-Il-Sung.
7 www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/north-korea-fascinating-facts/874277001/.
8 Chaibong, Hahm. “South Korea's Miraculous Democracy.” Rand Center for Asian Pacific Policy, 2008.
9 Kim, Christine. “North Korea 2016 Economic Growth at 17-Year High despite Sanctions: So.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 21 July 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-economy-gdp/ north-korea-2016-economic-growth-at-17-year-high-despite-sanctions-south-koreaidUSKBN1A607Z.
10 Weissmann, Jordan. “How Kim Jong Il Starved North Korea.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 20 Dec. 2011, www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/how-kim-jong-ilstarved-north-korea/250244/.
11 “Nine Charts Which Tell You All You Need to Know about North Korea.” BBC News, BBC, 26 Sept. 2017, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41228181.
12 See footnote 7.
13 Westcott, Ben. “Kim Jong Un Has Executed over 300 People since Coming to Power.” CNN, Cable News Network, 29 Dec. 2016, www.cnn.com/2016/12/29/asia/kim-jong-un-executions/ index.html.
14 Ibid.
15 Fifield, Anna. “Kim Jong Un Is a Top Suspect in His Half Brother's Death. But Questions Abound.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 16 Feb. 2017, www.washingtonpost.com/world/ asia_pacific/kim-jong-un-is-a-top-suspect-in-his-half-brothers-death-but-questions-abound/ 2017/02/16
16 Persio, Sofia Lotto. “What Happened to North Korea's Second Most Powerful Man after Kim Jong Un?” Newsweek, 15 Dec. 2017, www.newsweek.com/north-koreas-second-most-powerfulman-purged-party-sparking-execution-fears-748157.
17 Berlinger, Joshua. “North Korea's Missile Tests: What You Need to Know.” CNN, Cable News Network, 3 Dec. 2017, www.cnn.com/2017/05/29/asia/north-korea-missile-tests/index.html.
18 See footnote 1.