Assignment 16: Speech

Protection. At our moments most intimate, that is what we desire. A tangle of lovemaking loses its frivolity when those involved refuse to value the good of the whole over the benefits of the one. Imagine, if you will, two partners. Their involvement with one another is guaranteed, but, to stave off childbearing, they consider using protection. In this unfortunate situation, however, the cost of protection is astronomical and the chances of impregnation miniscule. But, if one partner were to be with child, millions would die. The protection? Anti-missile defense systems: machines which literally try to shoot down one missile with another. The partners? America and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, otherwise known as North Korea. Anti-missile systems provide the best defense against rogue nuclear launches after North Korea collapses, and, despite having a mixed track record, are better than alternative options in case of an attack.  

But to consider the question in whole, we must first know the background upon which this sordid tale of woe occurs. To the North Korean leadership, America, imperialistic and power-hungry, threatens the sovereignty of a country ruled by God. Prophetic in nature, North Korea’s narrative paints a literal battle between good and evil, God (North Korea) and Satan (America and its allies). No surprise is warranted, therefore, by any extreme governmental actions. When dissenters disappear from the public sphere and concentration camps spring up, it is justified—to the North Koreans—by the need for solidarity. Who cares for human rights when you’re fighting evil incarnate? The only way to defend the racially superior Korean people, Kim Jong-Un believes, is through the acquisition of nuclear weapons, enacting that great equalizer: mutually assured destruction.

 Insane he may be, but Kim Jong-Un is a shrewd leader. Since his rise to power in 2011, Jong-Un took North Korea from an isolated outpost of primitive dictatorship to one of the most feared countries in the world. This rise was formulated on an understanding of the power of nuclear weapons. Mutually assured destruction works only if two countries have nuclear arsenals, and, by developing ICBMs, little doubt remains in American minds that North Korea has just that. Of course, mutually assured destruction must be mutual, and Jong-Un knows this. North Korea cannot destroy America (as it vows to do), but America could easily destroy North Korea. Invasion, even by an administration as volatile as Trump’s, is unthinkable, and the status quo, with North Korea continually expanding its nuclear arsenal, is bound to continue.

The fact that the North isn’t going to attack the South begs the question of whether or not we need anti-missile defense systems. Unfortunately, we must consider all probabilities, and it's becoming increasingly likely that nuclear weapons will fall into rogue hands once the North Korean state collapses. This collapse may not be imminent, but it will happen, and, as long a doubt to when it will remains, a guessing game we cannot play. Testaments from within the country hold pertinent. Thae Yong Ho, a high-level defector, said recently that the influx of information from outside the country and expansion of market activities within it are sapping traditional structures of the North Korean system. The regime is “crumbling” and the days of Kim Jong Un… are “numbered,” said North Korea's deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, prior to defecting (Bertram, 2017). Dr. Bruce Bennett, an expert at the Rand Corporation, concurs, writing “Given that Kim Jong-un in two years has turned over the North Korean military leadership as many times as his father did in 17 years, there is now more concern that Kim Jong-un could become the target of an assassination...by senior military personnel. Many of these personnel already likely fear for their future and the future of their families, given North Korean brutality” (as qtd. in Ingersoll, 2014).Should North Korea collapse, “Hardliners may be tempted to use (nuclear weapons), fulfilling their purpose of regime survival, or warlord minded generals may use them to set up their own quasi-kingdoms,” states Phil W. Reynolds (2016), Asian Affairs expert at the University of Hawaii. He continues, “In the chaos that follows… American forces would most likely attempt to capture (nuclear) sites quickly.” “If they are not contained immediately after the government falls,” writes the New York Times (2017) “(nuclear weapons) may be (launched) or sold to the black market and be lost.” South Korea cannot afford even the slightest chance that nuclear weapons will cross its borders- it needs preventative, not abortive, care.

Unfortunately, anti-missile defense systems have somewhat of a mixed record. Field tests, even under relatively ideal conditions, have been riddled with failure. According to a report by the US Department of Defense, of the 13 THAAD tests since 1999, two were considered “no tests” because the system malfunctioned (PBS, 2010). If North Korea wanted to kill millions of South Korean civilians, it would not need to use any missiles at all, but rather can use its substantial artillery units for which Seoul, South Korea’s largest system, is fully within range. THAAD and other anti-missile systems are entirely useless against artillery. Moreover, there are any number of strategies that render the missile defense system ineffective. The military's testing may not reflect the danger of swarm-type attacks by multiple incoming ballistic missiles from North Korea or other enemies.  Such a scenario could overwhelm or confuse the system and render it useless.

Lockeed Martin, the maker of most of America’s anti-missile defense systems, reports that they have an 100% success rate (THAAD, 2017). Though these statistics are overly optimistic and reflect the interests of a company trying to push its products, they are the only detailed reports we have and must be taken into consideration. Additionally, missile defense systems will improve only when tested in the field, not isolated in a factory. So, while systems may fail when subject to an actual attack, their placement creates an opportunity for development and testing.

To counter this, opponents state that, while testing is important, anti-missile defense systems cost money. Lots of money. Depending on the mechanism, most machines cost millions of dollars, with some even ranging into the billions. However, if North Korea launches a nuclear weapon and missile defense systems aren’t operational, South Korea will be forced to initiate a horrific and high-costing alternative: the ominously-named kill chain. Kill chain is an official part of South Korea’s nuclear defense system in which, if the government feels an attack is eminent, the South Korean military will launch a preemptive strike on North Korea’s nuclear system. The South Korean President vowed to enhance a self-reliant defence capability plans include the deployment of a kill chain. Jeff Nesbit, an ex-Pentagon chief, stated the following regarding the possibility of preemptive strikes: “I have myself - both when I was secretary of defense and, later, when I was advising the government - seriously considered preemptive strikes as a military option. But whether or not this was a good idea ... I am convinced it's not a good idea today” (qtd. in Knigge, 2017). Unfortunately, with such a volatile administration in office, the kill chain has an enormous chance of failure. Lucy Diamond (2017) of The Atlantic wrote that a preemptive strike “would likely fail to eliminate all of Kim’s short-range missiles (many of which are mobile) or his nuclear weapons (which are surely hidden). And so... a furious military response from North Korea with its nuclear arsenal still intact puts millions of lives in South Korea and potentially Japan as well at imminent risk.”

Lovemaking may not be the best word to describe the US/North Korean relationship, but it is certainly an apt metaphor for protection.  Anti-missile systems provide the best defense against rogue nuclear launches after North Korea collapses, and, despite having a mixed track record, are better than alternative options in case of an attack.  Never before has the Korean Peninsula been as fertile as now. America must insert its will.

 Works Cited

Bertrand, P. (2017, January 26). Top North Korean defector says Kim Jung-un's days "are numbered". Retrieved December 12, 2017, from http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/26/top-north-korean-defector-says-kim-jung-un-s-days-are-numbered

Broad, W. J., & Sanger, D. E. (2017, August 14). North Korea’s Missile Success Is Linked to Ukrainian Plant, Investigators Say. Retrieved December 12, 2017, from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

Diamond, L. (2017, April 26). There Is a Peaceful Way Out of the North Korea Crisis. Retrieved December 12, 2017, from https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/north-korea-trump-china/524349/

Ingersoll, G. (2014, January 29). North Korea's Looming Collapse In One Statistic. Retrieved December 12, 2017, from http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-collapse-2014-1

Knigge, Michael. (2017). Preemptive strike against North Korea not an option, says former Pentagon chief Perry | News | DW | 22.06.2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017, from http://www.dw.com/en/preemptive-strike-against-north-korea-not-an-option-says-former-pentagon-chief-perry/a-39376198

Motion picture on DVD. (2016). America: National Geographic . Retrieved December 12, 2017, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MatC-sS9NB0

PBS. (n.d.). Theater Missile Defense. Retrieved December 12, 2017, from https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline//////////shows/missile/technology/theater.html

Reynolds, P. W. (2016, September 05). What Happens If North Korea Collapses? Retrieved December 12, 2017, from https://thediplomat.com/2016/09/what-happens-if-north-korea-collapses/

THAAD [Advertisement]. (2017). Retrieved 2017, from https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwiqmKyW8oXYAhWPQ98KHTTaBokQjhwIBQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.lockheedmartin.com%2Fus%2Fproducts%2Fthaad.html&psig=AOvVaw038kYv2NJi8QHBXkRbbk2D&ust=1513216842556286